理悦CEMA•知与行系列研讨会：“Uncertainty Paradox”

来源：

学校官网

收录时间：

2025-11-01 15:19:15

时间：

2025-11-07 11:30:00

地点：

中央财经大学学院南路校区学术会堂712会议室

报告人：

周晶

学校：

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关键词：

uncertainty paradox, information acquisition, macroeconomics, sentiment, output volatility, economic downturns

简介：

During economic downturns, firms increase information acquisition to reduce individual uncertainty. However, this heightened collective pursuit of information paradoxically results in a higher level of ex post uncertainty. We refer to this phenomenon as the "Uncertainty Paradox." To explain this paradox, we propose a model with sentiments under incomplete information. In our model, firms acquire information that enhances their understanding of both their idiosyncratic fundamental shocks and aggregate sentiments. When firms believe that sentiments drive aggregate output, acquiring more information unintentionally magnifies output volatility, thereby raising ex post uncertainty and reinforcing firms' incentive to acquire information. Using a standard macroeconomic framework, we show that as the economy transitions from expansion to recession, ex post uncertainty rises with increased ex ante information acquisition. Our results also offer a theoretical explanation for the endogenous rise in uncertainty and information acquisition during economic downturns.

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